Stats of Growing Old.

  The other day, in the local paper, I read an article on how old can people live too.  The oldest people end up living to 115 or 120 but the article had some awesome statistics on this topic. 

The article mentioned the Gompertz law formulated by Benjamin Gompertz in 1825 suggests the odds of dying double every eight years for people between the ages of 30 and 80.  After the age of 80, it appears that rates begin slowing down until they plateau between 105 to 110 years.

The law does not actually look at the odds of living to a certain age.  The odds of a woman living to the age of 110 is 2 in 100,000 but the odds of a man living to the same age is 2 in 1,000,000.  The odds are vastly different. 

Other odds given in the article state if you reach the age of 105, there is a 50 percent chance you will reach 106.  The 50 percent chance applies each year you live past 105.  So if you are 106, there is a 50 percent chance you'll reach 107 and a 50 percent chance you'll get to 108 years old.  Its the same as flipping a coin for heads or tails.

That sounds like a decent set of odds but once you add numbers to it, it isn't as good.  Think about it.  If only 2 men are alive at 110, that means 4 at 109, 8 at 108, 16 at 107, and continue to work backwards. It shows that not that many are alive at 105.

The article itself claims there are 3,373 women and 463 men in Italy who lived to the age of 105 and beyond.  These folks were born between 1896 and 1910.  There were four born in 1896 who lived to 105 or beyond while over 600 people born in 1910 lived to the same age.  That is a tremendous increase.  The article said the increase was due to  improved infant survival and the care of senior citizens so people could live longer.

There is an actual discussion on a possible limit of 115 years for a human life span but there are a few folks who live past that.  What ever the limit, if it exists, only a few can make it that long. 

The above is an example of statistics being used in the media.  Usually when I read something like this, I automatically begin researching the claims to see if the information is actually correct and explained in the proper context. We all know statistics can be misleading, so its good to check out the information.


We know what the stats are for Italy but what are the stats for the number of people who have reached 105 years old in the United States.  There are several people in my family who have made it to their late 80's.  I know of at least one person who made it to 97 before they died while another recently reached 94.  I don't know of many others who have made it that old.  I do know the odds are against his making it to 110.

For this type of article, I would provide copies of it to my students to read, write down questions they have on the material, think of what if's, before trying to apply the material to information they have from the census bureau.  They might create a spreadsheet to calculate the number of folks who live to 110 in several different countries.

It is important to read and think about articles found in the media because too many times, we accept the information without question and its not always presented properly. 

Let me know what you think, I'd love to hear.  Have a great day.