Mathematical Modeling and the Coronavirus.

 Although most of us are scared in regard to the Coronavirus, it is the perfect opportunity to study exponential growth.  In the past few days, there have been some great articles published on this topic and why not use them as part of a student assignment.

Since many of us will be setting up distance classes, this is the perfect time to introduce mathematical modeling.  There are tons of articles out there that can be used to help teach students more about this topic.

The CDC has released a simplified YouTube video on the Coronavirus following an exponential growth pattern.  It is a great introduction to the concept of exponential growth for a real situation.  I'd love to use it but not all my students have sufficient bandwidth to use it.  I might take screen shots to print off and make it available to them.

The New York Times is a great source for various articles dealing with the Coronavirus and its grown.  The link takes you to an article called the Exponential Power of Now that looks at two epidemiologists who noticed the numbers contained in a tweet and used excel to model the growth.  The article then goes into detail explaining everything.  In addition, there are links at the bottom of the article to other articles on the numbers (March 5), flattening the virus curve (March 11), worst case estimates (March 13), and mapping the social network (March 13).

The Washington Post has an article that explains why the Coronavirus spreads exponentially and ways people can flatten the curve.  This article has some wonderful animations designed to show things visually so students get a better idea of the changes as they occur.

The article found on Statnews gives links to at least one modeling program students can input numbers for their state or other states to see how fast people will be getting sick and how many hospital beds will be needed.  This article explains the model is actually made for hospitals so they can be better prepared for an influx of patients but it could easily be used by students to see how hospitals can use this model to plan.

This site gives better detailed information on mathematical modeling of the virus.  The article does mention how hard it is to create a mathematical model at the beginning of this because it is a new virus and no one knows anything about it so parameters are set using educated guesses.  As more is learned, the model can be adjusted. This article actually unpacks models used to predict the spread of infectious diseases and show how WHO and others are using these models to predict the future spread of the coronavirus.

This article has a simple explanation for mathematical modeling using a simple example to introduce the concept. This article is a great way of introducing the topic and building foundational knowledge for your students.  Most of my students have never thought about how mathematical modeling happens and this gives a great introduction.

As for actually doing simulations, check out the Creative Learning Exchange for their simplified infection game and free app.  They also have some nice mini lessons on energy drinks and zombies.  The other place to check is Stella software on the ISEE systems site.  They offer a free version which can be used from anywhere and if you check under models, you'll see a simulation is available to play with.

The simulator gives background information on the virus, provides model overview, the assumptions made for the model, policy and results which is the page where people can change numbers to see how it changes things, and a summary.  There are other models you can use from there so check it out.

There are lots of other articles out there but these are the most current.  I don't know what is going to happen next week but I'm prepared either way.  Let me know what you think, I'd love to hear.  Have a great day.