Winning At The Gift Stealing Game.

 

I am going to apologize for not having my usual entry this past Monday but I had been traveling and didn't have the ability to access the internet.  I took a semester long job in a beautiful place in Alaska and I'm finally getting back to normal.  Now, on to today.  We are going to look at the best way to win at the gift stealing games.  

One mathematician, decided to use mathematical modeling to determine how one can best "win" the game. The game is played where everyone brings a wrapped gift, puts it in a pile and each person in order has the choice of selecting a gift from the pile and opening it or selecting a gift that someone else opened so you know what you are getting.  If a person has their gift taken they may choose a new one or take an already opened one. Now if you are the first person, you can only choose an unopened gift and if you are the last person, you know what everyone has gotten so you can make a better guess.

The mathematician used agent based modeling which is used for everything from companies bidding in the electricity market to the way the human immune system works.  The person decided to have 16 people with 16 gifts for the model. In addition, all opened gifts were assigned a value of 1 to 10 based on how desirable they were.  The likely hood of the opened gift being taken increased if it was rated at above a 5.  In my family, if the gift was some sort of alcohol, it was automatically at the top of the list for being taken.  

Furthermore, it is known that there are multiple variations in which people play depending on the family.  The fairest rules are the ones that allow a gift to be taken multiple times during each turn, if a person holds the same gift  three times, it cannot be taken, and after the last person has chosen their gift, the first person is allowed to take a gift.  

It is possible to utilize the three rounds and the gift becomes locked rule if you utilize two co-conspirators.  Say you take friend ones gift, friend one takes friend two's gift, and friend two takes your gift  so each of your friends have the gift three times and can keep you.  You can go after another gift so they get what they want.

It is important to steal gifts in this game because the model indicated that participants are 75% less happy with their gift if they don't steal any gifts and steal something even if you don't want anything.  Think about stealing a gift that someone wants so that when it is stolen from you later in the game, you have a wider choice of games to choose from.  So now you know how to mathematically use the rules to help you get the gift you want.  Let me know what you think